Xugong Machinery (000425): The value of the mixed reform is expected to be significantly underestimated this year
Event: The company foresees net profit attributable to mother in the first half of the year 21?
240,000 yuan, followed by an increase of 90.
39%, of which Q2 achieved net profit attributable to mother 10.
5 billion, a 79-year growth of 79.
Opinion: The performance is in line with expectations.
The growth rate of the crane industry in the second quarter was still relatively fast. The company’s production capacity recovered after the relocation of the company’s plant, supplemented by the promotion of new products, and its market share has stabilized and rebounded. Considering the company’s mixed reform catalyst, the current value is clearly underestimated, and ratings are strongly recommended.
The long-term growth of the construction machinery industry is worry-free, and the growth rate of the crane industry will lead the excavator.
① In May 2019, the investment in real estate development increased for many years11.
20%, an increase of 1 over 2018.
Infrastructure investment growth rate for the second half of the year 2.
60%, an increase of 0 from 2018.
At 81pct, the shortcomings of infrastructure supplementation are obvious. Taking into account the new regulations for special debt, we raised the growth forecast for infrastructure investment, and then considered upgrading and export demand to judge the growth of the construction machinery industry without 南京桑拿网 worry.
② Although the growth rate of the crane industry in Q2 in 2019 is improved compared with Q1, it is still growing rapidly. Benefiting from the drive of upgrading and environmental protection requirements, it is expected that the growth rate will lead the excavator.
The recovery of production capacity complemented the promotion of new products, and the company’s market share in Q2 stabilized and rebounded.
The company was limited by production capacity in the first quarter, and the additional performance of the crane has improved. The production capacity has been restored after the factory moved in the second quarter. New product promotion has been consolidated, and the market share has stabilized and rebounded.Look, we expect the company’s market share to exceed 45%, increase at least two double rooms earlier, and rank first in the market.
The mixed reform stimulates the potential of enterprises and is expected to be completed by the end of 2019.
At present, the company’s controlling shareholder Xugong Co., Ltd. is vigorously advancing the mixed reform work, and it is expected to become a high-quality strategic investor while maintaining the vertical extension of the original holding.
According to Caixin.com, at the end of 2019, XCMG will complete the mixed reform.
We judge that after the mixed reform is completed, the corporate governance structure and incentive system will be more complete, and the operation will be more efficient and market-oriented.
Investment suggestion: Based on the existing business, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 is expected to be 40.
00 is 100%, corresponding PE is 8 respectively.
32 times, the current value is obviously undervalued. If the Group’s asset injection of excavators is considered, the company’s product layout and industry will be further improved.
Maintain a highly recommended level.
Risk reminder: The economic decline is declining, and the expansion of overseas business is frustrated.