Institutions believe the Fed’s “Dove Pie” replaces favoring emerging markets
The agency believes that the restoration of the Fed’s “Dove Pie” is good for emerging markets China Securities Journal reporter Ye Siqi in the early morning of March 21, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce that the federal funds rate target range will remain unchanged after the regular monetary policy meeting that day endsAnd hinted that no interest rate increase this year.
In addition, the Fed also announced plans to end the supplementary balance sheet plan in September.
Institutional sources said that this move exceeded market expectations and brought breakthroughs to global markets, especially emerging markets.
Star Stone Investment, which surpassed market expectations, stated that the Fed’s goal was a “dove” shift, which implied that no interest rate hike this year exceeded market expectations.
Judging from the Fed’s bitmap in March, the expected median federal funds rate at the end of 2019 is 2.
4%, suggesting that interest rate hikes will cease in 2019; the median expected federal funds rate at the end of 2020 is 2.
6% means that interest rates will be raised at most once or not in 2020.
The Fed’s bitmap in December 2018 implies that it is expected to raise interest rates twice in 2019.
”The Fed made a ‘doves’ statement, which slightly exceeded market expectations, which mainly reflects the Fed’s judgment on the prospects for US economic growth.
“Ivy Asset Management Partner Wang Cheng believes that 2019 is the highest point in the US economic cycle and economic fundamentals do not support the United States’ continued tight monetary policy in 2019.
Liang Hui, general manager of Gathering Capital, said that on the whole, the degree of doves displayed by the Fed slightly exceeded market expectations.
After the announcement, the US dollar index tumbled, and 10-year US Treasury yields fell to a stage low.
Since the fourth quarter of 2018, US retail and consumption data have been weakening continuously.
The future is promising. Against the backdrop of rising current uncertainty, it is not difficult to understand the sharp shift in Fed policy since January 2019.
At the same time, considering the next pressure on US salary appreciation and the GDP growth rate that still exceeds potential growth, the Fed may maintain a combination of suspension of interest rate hikes and gradual end of contraction, and the time to restart interest rate cuts is still immature.
Favorable for emerging markets “If the Fed stops raising interest rates and withdraws from its balance sheet this year, it will be a major positive for the global market, especially the exchange rate pressure on emerging markets including China will be greatly reduced, which will help improve the liquidity of emerging market countries.
“Xingshi Investment believes that for China, the operation of monetary policy will be more flexible and there will be no space. In the future, it will continue to guide the downlink through currency tools such as RRR cuts and targeted interest rate cuts, but it is unlikely that the 杭州夜生活网 benchmark interest rate will be reduced.
Liang Hui believes that domestically, the Fed’s rate hike cycle is coming to an end, which will help reduce the pressure on currency depreciation.
At the same time, the external environment has further relaxed the constraints on China ‘s monetary policy, and the “wide currency” space has been opened. The adjustment of monetary policy will focus more on the operation of the domestic economy.
Although the Fed’s reserve budget has a positive effect on improving market risk estimates, it has limited impact on the stock market. The early market rebound has fully absorbed the benefits of loose liquidity. The future market direction mainly depends on economic data and corporate profits.
Especially for A-shares, the stability of the domestic economy and the improvement of corporate profits 广州桑拿 can help the stock index to rise further.
Wang Cheng believes that due to the decline in European and American economic growth, export-related industries and cyclical industries need to be cautious this year.
Compared with the United States, the yield level of the Chinese bond market and the estimated level of the stock market are quite attractive, and the transfer of US monetary policy will also make Chinese assets more popular.