China Merchants Shekou (001979) July 2019 sales data review: Sales continue to increase, keep cautious
Event: On August 9, China Merchants Shekou announced the company’s sales data for July, and the company achieved a contract amount of 193 in July.
4 ‰, +28 a year.
9%; 121 signing area achieved.
30,000 square meters, +102 per year.
8%; The company added 153 new construction surfaces in July.
40,000 square meters, +24 per year.
1%; total land price 54.
2 ppm, -57 per year.
Opinion: The sales in July were 19.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29%. The sales in January-July were 120.5 billion, an increase of + 34%. Sales continued to increase.
400 million, -31.
7%, +28 throughout the year.
9%, the average monthly average of half a month before the mainstream 50 real estate companies +15.
8%; 121 signing area achieved.
30,000 countries, -18 MoM.
2%, +102 in the past.
8%, exceeding the high-frequency tracking of 45 cities in July each +3 of the transaction area.
5%; the average selling price is 15,947 yuan / square meter, compared with -16.
5%, earlier 18 years-22.
From January to July, the company realized a total of 1,205 contracted amounts.
3 ‰, +33 a year.
8%, up from -1 last month.
0pct; 636 signed area.
50,000 countries, +52 per year.
2%, +8 from last 都市夜网 month.
The cumulative average selling price from January to July was 18,937 yuan / square meter, which was earlier than 18 years-8.
2pct; the company’s sales quarter in July continued to increase rapidly, taking into account the monthly decline in the third quarter, and the company’s excellent layout (the first-tier and second-tier cities accounted for 84% of the uncarried soil reserves, and the Greater Bay Area accounted for 31%).In the context of second-tier market expectations, previous sales are expected to continue to perform better.
In July, 5.4 billion land was acquired, -57% per year, and the land acquisition / predetermined ratio was 28%. The land acquisition was cautious. In July, the company acquired 5 projects in Nanjing, Changsha, Foshan, Qidong, and Hunchun.Supplement surface 153.
40,000 countries, +24 per year.
1%, corresponding to 54.
200 million, ten years -57.
4%; land rights and interests account for 64.
3%, up from -8 last month.
3pct; floor price of 3,534 yuan / square meter, -62.
7%, mainly due to the company’s industrial land acquisition in Hunchun and Qidong in July, commercial and residential mixed land parcels of income.Take up 28% of diesel.
0%, +8 from last month.
8pct, take care to take the land.
From January to July, the company acquired a total of 34 new plots, adding a total of 536 planned areas.
70,000 countries, -41 per year.
7%; total land price 451.
2 ‰, -38 per year.
5%; take land area equity ratio of 56.
7%, +1 from earlier 18 years.
5pct; the proportion of land taken is 37.
4%, a decrease of 17 from 18 years.
7pct; the average floor price is 8,406 yuan / square meter, the average floor price of the earlier 18 years +16.
1%, mainly due to the company’s efforts to increase land in key first- and second-tier cities.
Investment suggestion: Sales continue to increase rapidly, and the land is still cautious. Maintain “strong push” rating. Merchants Shekou actively changed in multiple dimensions after reorganization, management reforms, improved turnover, and accelerated integration. The company sits on first- and second-tier high-quality soil storage, especiallyThe Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao Greater Bay Area resource reserve has a very high gold content; only “marketization + non-marketization” has a strong land acquisition advantage.
In addition, with the heavy introduction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area plan, the company, as the core target of the Greater Bay Area, is expected to further increase its asset value.
We maintain the company’s expected earnings forecast for 2019-21 to 2.
97 and 3.
64 yuan, the current price corresponding to 19-20 PE is 8.
5 times, and the company is divided into NAV35.
The early discount of 20 yuan has reached 45%. Based on the company’s role as an industry leader, it can benefit from the further improvement of industry concentration, and strengthen the first-tier and second-tier and the Greater Bay Area to improve future sales elasticity.
00 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level.
Risk warning: the real estate market adjustment policy tightens more than expected and the industry funds tighten more than expected.