Deng Haiqing commented on import and export data: 南宁桑拿 the global economic downturn is negative
Import and export are both rare and negative growth! Original: Deng Haiqing, Chen Xi WeChat public account: Haiqing FICC channel USD-denominated imports in December were -7.6%, export ten years -4.4%, imports and exports are far below the previous value and market expectations.The annual negative growth rate of imports and exports is the highest since October 2016. The huge trade pressure in 2019 will intensify the downward pressure on the economy. Fiscal, currency, and macro-prudential countercyclical adjustments still need to be overweight. The trade advance effect ebbs. From January to October 2018, China’s imports and exports generally exceeded market expectations. One of the important reasons is that tariff expectations lead to imports and exports ahead of schedule. With the expected increase in the China-US peace talks at the end of 2018, the tariffs continue to increase and the expectations are dissipated. Global economic downturn negative exports Since 2018, Europe and Japan have been fatigued, South Korean exports are also trending downward, and China’s foreign trade is difficult to stay aside. If the US economy no longer stands out in 2019, the underpinnings of the global economy will disappear, and the situation facing China’s imports and exports will worsen. China’s economy is down, bulk prices have dragged imports Since the end of 2018, China’s economy has accelerated. From a historical point of view, except for the interference of tariff issues in 2018, there is a positive correlation between imports and industrial added value, and the economic downturn has dragged imports. Commodity prices continued to fall at the end of 2018, which is also an important reason for the decline in imports. Narrowing trade surplus barrier-free RMB “counterattack” In 2018, the trade surplus narrowed sharply, but the Sino-US trade surplus continued to expand, probably mainly because of robbing exports to the United States.In terms of peace talks, exports are expected to decrease, and China will increase imports from the United States. China’s trade surplus will further decline in 2019. However, we believe that the trade balance is not absolutely the main factor of the RMB exchange rate. The key is to repair the previous excessive depreciation and the weakening of the US dollar index. We continue to be optimistic about the RMB exchange rate in 2019. The bond bull market has been over. The current market consensus is not actually optimistic about the bond market. From the perspective of market performance, it is also more bullish but not more, waiting for depth. We believe that the short-term disturbance factors of the bond market do exist, including the phased recovery of risk assets, the serious fear of high bond market sentiment, local bond issuance expectations, etc., but we continue to be optimistic about the bond market in 2019. We believe that the economic fundamentals are picking up later than the market expects, and the duration of the wide currency will exceed market expectations, which is the underlying logic of the bond market.The “asset shortage” will return in 2019, and the bond bull market is far from overheating.