Guizhou Moutai (600519) Quarterly Report Comment: Performance Exceeds Expectations, Sword Refers to 100 Billion Targets
Key Investment Events: The company achieved operating income of 216 in the first quarter of 2019.44 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.92%; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 112.21 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.91%, basically the return is 8.93 yuan, an annual increase of 31.91%. The results of the first quarter report exceeded expectations, and the increase in average price + expense control drove profit growth.1Q1 company’s operating income and profit growth rate was 23.9% / 31.9%, slightly higher than the 20% / 30% level of the announcement guidelines, and the advance payment at the end of the reporting period was 113.8.5 billion, down 16 from the previous month.14%, a decline of 13 per year.57%; Considering the changes in advance receipts, we expect actual revenue to increase by about 20%. In the first quarter, the shipment volume of Moutai liquor was about 8,700 tons, which was an increase of about 7%.The profit growth rate of 19Q1 was significantly faster than 北京桑拿洗浴保健 the income growth rate, which was mainly due to the increase in the average price corresponding to the advance receipts, the increase in the gross profit margin of the series of wines, and the increase in the cost control.In terms of different products, the revenue of Moutai in 19Q1 was 194.98 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.68%, series wine income 21.32 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.30%.In terms of channels, direct sales revenue was 10.USD 9.2 billion, accounting for only about 5%. At the end of the reporting period, the number of dealers was 2569, which was reduced by 533 every year. This was mainly to further optimize the distribution of the marketing network and enhance the overall strength of the distributors.Clean-up and elimination, the company reduced 494 distributors of sauce series. The gross profit margin increased as scheduled, and the expense ratio continued to decline during the period.1Q1 company gross margin was 92.11%, a year to raise 0.8pct, mainly due to the price increase of the product; the period cost is supplemented by 10.8%, down by 1 every year.49pct, of which selling expenses cost 3.88%, down by 1 every year.26pct, which is mainly due to the increase in the efficiency of cost and expenditure after the development of a series of wines on track, and management cost expenditure6.52%, basically flat for one year.The company’s net profit margin was 55 in 2018.05%, a significant increase every year 2.77pct, mainly due to price increases and cost efficiency.1Q19 The company’s net cash flow from operating activities was 11.8.9 billion, down 75 each year.91%, mainly due to the increase in the net replenishment of central banks and interbanks and the increase in taxes and fees paid. The preliminary company’s revenue target is expected to be fully achieved, and the Group’s revenue will be fully advanced towards the 100 billion target.Since the second quarter, the price of Pfeiffer has increased rapidly. At present, the general price is generally above 1900 yuan, and terminal demand continues to be strong. It is transformed into self-operated stores, commercial supermarkets and corporate group purchase channels, and we gradually release goods., But will remain at a high position of 1700-1800 yuan.At first glance, we believe that the company’s growth comes from two aspects. One is the increasing performance of self-operated channels. At present, the specialty stores in the self-operated channels have gradually increased significantly. Supermarket supply has launched bidding activities. We expect that the rest of the contract volume is expected to pass through the group.The establishment of a marketing company for sales, which is expected to increase the company’s expected profit; the second is to optimize the product structure, such as moderately increasing non-standard products with higher added value, to further meet consumer demand.From the perspective of revenue planning, the company’s planned revenue in 2019 will increase by about 14%. Considering that the current layout of supply and demand in Moutai has not changed, we believe that the revenue planning plan has exceeded expectations and has accelerated the achievement of the Group’s 100 billion targets. In the medium and long term, Moutai is expected to continue to achieve steady growth.Although the company’s internal adjustment efforts have penetrated in 2018, the length of Moutai’s leading brands will not change for the time being. We believe that companies occasionally encounter ups and downs that are actually fully combed and improved in the internal system. In the long run, the growth of Moutai wine should still focus on supply and demand.on.Based on the supply of base wine and market demand, we believe that the tight supply and demand of Moutai will persist for a long time. Considering the overlapping of internal channel price differences, Moutai can continue to raise prices in the future, even if the price remains unchanged. It is conservatively estimated that the company can stillRealize revenue growth of about 15% through strategies such as adjusting product structure.In the long run, the channel spread will eventually return to normal levels. We recommend that we look at the company’s investment opportunities from a longer-term perspective and continue to recommend it. Investment suggestion: re-buy rating, and continue to recommend.We adjusted our profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s total operating income for 2019-2021 will be USD 913/1062/1230 million, with a long-term growth of 18% / 16% / 16%; net profit will be USD 440/516/601 million, exceedingThe increase is 25% / 17% / 16%, corresponding to an EPS of 35.06/41.08/47.84 yuan. Risk warning: Sanggong’s consumption restrictions will increase, competition in the high-end wine industry will increase, and food quality accidents will occur.